Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d6a…23b3 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-16%) realized −$105 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$211
sports 6% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.6% -1.7% 41% 41% -44.9%
≤30d 17 +8.6% -1.7% 41% 41% -44.9%
≤90d 17 +8.6% -1.7% 41% 41% -44.9%
all 17 +8.6% -1.7% 41% 41% -44.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 41% -44.9%
10% -11.1% 35% -50.2%
15% -19.7% 35% -55.0%
20% -27.6% 24% -59.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)17 / 27
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $42 $15 −$27 (-64%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$24 +396%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.27 · official $396.58 (match) · 56 history records