Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d6a…c8c1 sports 11 markets active 9d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$950 (+14%) realized +$950 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$916
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 36% +4.6%
≤90d 11 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 36% +4.6%
all 11 +11.1% +0.5% 55% 36% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 36% +4.6%
10% -9.1% 18% -5.4%
15% ← realistic here -17.9% 18% -14.5%
20% -26.0% 18% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$222 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$950
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $897 −$404 -45%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 17 $750 +$15 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,415 +$272 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $331 +$1,121 +338%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $537 +$113 +21%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $200 −$65 -33%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $170 +$396 +233%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $154 −$79 -51%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $493 −$488 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,540 +$110 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $100 −$74 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $31 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $37 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $120 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $95 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $84 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $465 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $493 8d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $6 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $100 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $597 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $36 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $25 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $122 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 60¢ $593 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $607 9d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 95¢ $1,169 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records