Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d6b…0953 weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$103 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate77%24W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$3
crypto 21% $0
weather 16% +$1
sports 2% +$105
world 1% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 31 +3.4% -6.5% 77% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 3% -7.9%
10% -15.4% 3% -16.7%
15% -23.6% 3% -24.8%
20% -31.1% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×6.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.09 per $1 lost it wins $21.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses24 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage181d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23? Mar 23 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 18? Mar 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on March 18? Mar 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C on March 17? Mar 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $425 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 12? Mar 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $724 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 09 $105 +$105 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? Mar 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Trump talk to Mette Frederiksen in February? Mar 02 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 02 $363 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $433 $0 -0%
Will Meta (META) close above $860 end of February? Feb 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $838 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on February 19 Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Feb 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 45°F or below on February 3 Feb 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February Feb 16 $28 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Drin "⁠Makazze⁠" Shaqiri win the HLTV Rookie of the Year award Jan 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Greece recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Garidmagnai "⁠bLitz⁠" Byambasuren win the HLTV IGL of the Year aw Jan 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on Janu Jan 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on January 9? Jan 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dmitry "⁠sh1ro⁠" Sokolov win the HLTV Awper of the Year award Jan 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ja Jan 30 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $505 86d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $505 87d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $129 99d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $140 103d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $126 104d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $425 105d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 41°C on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $131 105d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $425 106d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $619 108d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $75 109d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $620 109d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $723 110d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $724 111d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 50¢ $105 112d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $740 115d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $54 115d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 117d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $432 118d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $433 120d
Will Trump talk to Mette Frederiksen in February? BUY No 99¢ $80 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $363 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $837 123d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $838 123d
Will Meta (META) close above $860 end of February? BUY No 100¢ $16 124d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr BUY No 100¢ $17 130d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on February 19 BUY No 100¢ $12 130d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February BUY No 100¢ $28 146d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 45°F or below on February 3 BUY No 100¢ $26 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.87 · official $132.93 (match) · 78 history records