Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4d6e…2175 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$355 (+13%) realized +$347 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%89W / 57L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$31
14 days+$92
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$321
other 12% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +33.6% +20.9% 60% 60% +31.6%
≤30d 56 +6.5% -3.6% 55% 52% -5.0%
≤90d 146 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 59% +2.4%
all 146 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 59% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 59% +2.4%
10% -3.7% 58% -7.4%
15% -13.0% 55% -16.4%
20% -21.6% 50% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$347
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses89 / 57
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage79d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+91%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 36¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Team Yandex 68¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Vitality 52¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 54¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Xtreme Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Nigma Galaxy 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner BC.Game Esports 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BetBoom Team 32¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B REKONIX 53¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Tundra Esports 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) FURIA 54¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner PARIVISION 33¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sharks 44¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 39¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 +$28 +160%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 +$3 +73%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$17 -84%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 06 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$8 +55%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $15 +$15 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$10 -51%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$6 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $23 −$3 -14%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$16 +123%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $31 +$22 +70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$12 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $47 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $28 +$20 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $10 +$18 +180%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $51 +$12 +24%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$14 +68%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 −$8 -53%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $46 +$29 +65%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $16 +$15 +93%
Spread: Wales (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $5 +$11 +216%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $27 +$11 +41%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $42 +$36 +86%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 01 $9 −$9 -97%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $25 −$10 -39%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 01 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $30 +$20 +66%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner May 23 $33 +$26 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 23 $31 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL 96¢ $45 16m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 41m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 20¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 39¢ $20 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 36¢ $17 9h
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 100¢ $7 6d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 57¢ $4 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 7¢ $3 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $19 7d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 43¢ $20 7d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $5 7d
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 54¢ $23 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 42¢ $10 7d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 39¢ $29 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $33 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 58¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 50¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 64¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Astralis 30¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 59¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 100¢ $12 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 42¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.18 · official $51.18 (match) · 276 history records