Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d6f…04b0 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$218 (-7%) realized −$226 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$143
14 days+$216
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$30
sports 46% −$50
crypto 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.2% -0.3% 68% 58% -3.7%
≤30d 29 +9.1% -1.3% 72% 62% -3.9%
≤90d 31 +8.3% -2.0% 71% 61% -9.8%
all 31 +8.3% -2.0% 71% 61% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 61% -9.8%
10% -11.4% 45% -18.4%
15% -20.0% 39% -26.3%
20% -27.8% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$65 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage49d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $169 $177 +$8 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 Jun 26 $50 +$15 +30%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U Jun 25 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$30 +58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $333 +$152 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $241 −$106 -44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $430 +$13 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $409 +$23 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $212 +$89 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$39 +56%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$17 -54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $75 −$54 -72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $65 +$11 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $59 +$9 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46 +$8 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$47 -78%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $137 +$73 +53%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $63 −$63 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $46 +$17 +36%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $25 +$21 +83%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $225 −$200 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $173 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 SELL 99¢ $66 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 75¢ $50 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U BUY 69¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $333 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $135 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $241 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $443 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $430 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $409 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 63¢ $69 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $14 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $14 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL 61¢ $21 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 60¢ $21 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL 25¢ $21 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY 87¢ $75 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 AND Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY 88¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY 86¢ $65 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.74 · official $176.74 (match) · 63 history records