Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d6f…9344 crypto 3 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+9%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 33% -7.0%
≤30d 3 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 33% -7.0%
≤90d 3 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 33% -7.0%
all 3 +5.6% -4.4% 67% 33% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 33% -7.0%
10% -13.6% 0% -15.9%
15% -21.9% 0% -24.1%
20% -29.6% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records