Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d6f…be20 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$805 (+3%) realized +$698 · open +$107
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%65W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day129.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -48.1% -53.1% 23% 6% -12.7%
≤30d 116 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 28% +1.8%
≤90d 116 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 28% +1.8%
all 116 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 28% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 28% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 14% -8.0%
15% -32.4% 11% -16.8%
20% -39.0% 8% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$16 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2,206
Realized+$698
Unrealized+$107
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses65 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)116 / 147
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$157
Trades / day129.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $679 $683 +$5 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $364 $380 +$16 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? No 92¢ 98¢ $240 $254 +$15 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? No 97¢ 100¢ $152 $157 +$5 (+3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 6¢ 13¢ $31 $69 +$39 (+126%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 9¢ 17¢ $37 $69 +$32 (+85%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? No 92¢ 98¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? No 9¢ 19¢ $22 $46 +$24 (+110%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? No 87¢ 98¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 8¢ 8¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? No 94¢ 98¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? No 4¢ 8¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+73%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 27? No 3¢ 7¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+141%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 28? No 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 23? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? No 3¢ 4¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? No 16¢ 22¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+35%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 26? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 24? No 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 29? No 3¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+198%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 29? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 27? No 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $330 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $9 −$4 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$9 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $51 −$41 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $181 −$3 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $197 −$69 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $239 −$40 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $149 +$20 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $724 +$132 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,192 +$89 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $22 −$17 -77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $82 +$16 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $617 +$35 +6%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $149 −$18 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $269 +$36 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $0 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $1 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $2 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 3¢ $1 36m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 3¢ $1 36m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $220 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? BUY No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $267 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $308 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $302 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $120 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $64 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $43 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $64 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $69 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? BUY No 10¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,206.29 · official $2,206.30 (match) · 3500 history records