trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +90.5% | +72.4% | 100% | 100% | +72.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +61.6% | +46.2% | 60% | 60% | +51.8% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +94.1% | +75.6% | 62% | 62% | +60.4% |
| all | 25 | -16.2% | -24.2% | 32% | 32% | -3.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.2% | 32% | -3.7% |
| 10% | -31.5% | 32% | -12.9% |
| 15% | -38.1% | 28% | -21.3% |
| 20% | -44.2% | 24% | -29.1% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Jun 29 | $67 | +$61 | +90% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $207 | +$327 | +158% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A | Jun 17 | $172 | +$446 | +259% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $200 | −$197 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $123 | −$120 | -98% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 19 | $25 | −$4 | -16% |
| Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? | Apr 19 | $25 | +$77 | +308% |
| Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer | Apr 19 | $50 | +$76 | +152% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 29 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 27 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 16 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14? | Sep 14 | $29 | +$16 | +56% |
| Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24? | Aug 24 | $236 | −$99 | -42% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Aug 17 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | Apr 22 | $87 | −$87 | -100% |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | Apr 22 | $50 | −$13 | -27% |
| Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? | Dec 01 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? | Dec 01 | $99 | −$90 | -91% |
| Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? | Nov 30 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $60,000 on August 16? | Nov 30 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Solana above $150 on August 16? | Nov 30 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $20 | +$7 | +35% |
| Will Trump say "Illegal immigrant" during Elon interview? | Aug 13 | $20 | +$10 | +49% |