Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4d74…4944 sports 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$768 (-5%) realized −$742 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%76W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$583
7 days+$583
14 days+$583
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$804
other 15% +$60
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.0% -1.4% 72% 62% +2.5%
≤30d 29 +9.0% -1.4% 72% 62% +2.5%
≤90d 125 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 45% -14.1%
all 125 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 45% -14.1%
10% -21.9% 22% -22.3%
15% -29.4% 14% -29.8%
20% -36.3% 9% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$54 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$742
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses76 / 49
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage53d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 59¢ 68¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Nicolas Kicker 80¢ 55¢ $120 $82 −$38 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $151 +$31 +20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $145 +$48 +33%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $301 +$25 +8%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $51 −$46 -92%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $228 +$11 +5%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $76 +$21 +28%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $101 +$25 +24%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$6 -6%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $151 +$53 +35%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $152 +$136 +89%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $205 −$91 -45%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $432 +$46 +11%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $101 −$25 -24%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $25 −$12 -46%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $101 +$65 +64%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $360 +$62 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $237 +$123 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $194 +$43 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $118 +$76 +64%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $98 +$19 +20%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $121 −$6 -5%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $151 −$97 -64%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $189 +$12 +6%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $58 +$33 +56%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $141 +$15 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 18 $99 −$39 -39%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $191 −$81 -43%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $130 +$9 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $114 −$42 -37%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $151 +$18 +12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $107 +$49 +46%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $200 −$170 -85%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone May 17 $241 +$29 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frances Tiafoe May 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Henri Squire May 17 $6 +$43 +704%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $53 −$53 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $148 −$82 -56%
Tunis: Kimmer Coppejans vs Edas Butvilas May 12 $210 −$74 -36%
Oeiras 4: Cristian Garin vs Lautaro Midon May 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Tunis: Joel Schwaerzler vs Franco Agamenone May 12 $281 +$27 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci May 09 $82 −$82 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Alejandro Davidovich Fo May 09 $72 +$9 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce May 09 $53 +$19 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $115 −$32 -27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 06 $101 −$49 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 59¢ $76 20m
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Nicolas Kicker 80¢ $121 21m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Daniel Rincon 99¢ $182 24m
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 82¢ $151 32m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $194 51m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $145 59m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 100¢ $326 1h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 5¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea SELL Billy Harris 100¢ $240 1h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 92¢ $301 1h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 95¢ $228 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith SELL Jurij Rodionov 100¢ $96 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $235 1h
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 58¢ $51 1h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 78¢ $76 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 99¢ $125 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 79¢ $101 2h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 85¢ $201 2h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 56¢ $95 3h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $204 3h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 58¢ $101 3h
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 73¢ $151 3h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $288 4h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $152 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Jerome Kym 52¢ $73 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 84¢ $121 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 28¢ $40 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 57¢ $84 4h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Buvaysar Gadamauri 100¢ $478 4h
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 90¢ $432 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.94 · official $163.49 · 286 history records