Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d77…483b
crypto · 493 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$540 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$536 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$536
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses234 / 258
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)492 / 493
History coverage46d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 492 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$17
14 days−$175
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 51¢ 36¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$17 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $61 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$49 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $62 +$53 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$25 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $144 +$33 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $163 +$47 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $73 −$61 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$38 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $143 +$40 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $86 +$24 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$535
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $21 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $23 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -15.8% -23.9% 45% 43% -6.9%
≤30d 469 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 45% -12.2%
≤90d 492 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 43% -12.9%
all 492 -12.4% -20.7% 48% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 43% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 38% -21.3%
15% -35.2% 33% -28.9%
20% -41.6% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.81 · official $11.70 (match) · 1264 history records