Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d77…89f5 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-10%) realized −$289 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$263
14 days−$139
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$18
finance 13% −$142
crypto 9% −$36
politics 2% −$36
world 1% −$4
sports 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -14.1% -22.3% 38% 38% -23.6%
≤30d 38 +22.4% +10.8% 45% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 43 +13.9% +3.1% 42% 40% -14.0%
all 44 +12.5% +1.8% 41% 39% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 39% -20.7%
10% -7.9% 39% -28.3%
15% -16.8% 39% -35.2%
20% -25.0% 36% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$37 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$289
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage124d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $34 $90 +$55 (+161%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 88¢ 74¢ $71 $59 −$12 (-17%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 6¢ 59¢ $4 $36 +$32 (+886%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-45%)
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 −$3 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $13 −$7 -49%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -81%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 +$32 +358%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$10 +59%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 +$9 +78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +75%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $267 −$239 -90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +183%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $220 +$126 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $160 −$158 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $65 −$60 -93%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $133 −$131 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$54 +528%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$33 +107%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +198%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +45%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $21 +$117 +553%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 09 $0 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 09 $8 −$5 -67%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 09 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? May 29 $6 +$6 +103%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $16 −$5 -33%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $23 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 20 $294 −$142 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 88¢ $71 34m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 36m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 10h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 23h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 27h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 33h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $12 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.89 · official $317.93 (match) · 198 history records