Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d79…9a4e
crypto · 29 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $77 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$27 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $76 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $27 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $24 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $77 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 41% -15.2%
≤30d 29 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 41% -15.2%
≤90d 29 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 41% -15.2%
all 29 -3.9% -13.1% 66% 41% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 41% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 28% -23.3%
15% -29.0% 17% -30.7%
20% -36.0% 10% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records