Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d7a…751a sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$710 (-6%) realized −$993 · open +$283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%59W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$635
7 days+$2,318
14 days−$7
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$574
other 9% +$804
crypto 2% +$20
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +45.8% +31.9% 49% 43% +22.9%
≤30d 139 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 32% -12.0%
≤90d 139 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 32% -12.0%
all 151 +7.6% -2.6% 39% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 34% -12.0%
10% -11.9% 30% -20.4%
15% -20.4% 24% -28.1%
20% -28.2% 22% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$56 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$3,662
Realized−$993
Unrealized+$283
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses59 / 92
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions24
Markets (closed)151 / 174
History coverage126d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 86¢ $98 $159 +$60 (+61%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 96¢ $136 $159 +$22 (+16%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Cabo Verde 93¢ 92¢ $155 $152 −$2 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 47¢ 74¢ $91 $144 +$52 (+57%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Cabo Verde 81¢ 80¢ $137 $136 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 58¢ 58¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 90¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 85¢ $46 $83 +$37 (+81%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 23¢ 62¢ $30 $81 +$51 (+170%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 25¢ $28 $72 +$44 (+160%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Under 25¢ 34¢ $47 $65 +$18 (+38%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 37¢ 42¢ $54 $62 +$8 (+15%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $59 $57 −$2 (-3%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $50 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 38¢ 36¢ $44 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+20%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Under 16¢ 16¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Cabo Verde 2¢ 2¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Over 3¢ 2¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-45%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 66¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 +$23 +24%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $154 +$59 +38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 −$37 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $55 +$31 +56%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $58 +$30 +51%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $47 −$47 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $80 −$79 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $172 −$169 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $229 +$20 +9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $529 −$517 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +25%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $55 +$13 +24%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $70 +$4 +6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 +$58 +156%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $100 +$51 +51%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $150 +$20 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $220 +$225 +102%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $140 +$461 +330%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $157 +$756 +482%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $198 +$127 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $40 +$17 +43%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 19 $67 +$66 +98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $65 +$76 +118%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $106 +$56 +53%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $125 +$48 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $84 +$197 +235%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 +$421 +3159%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $22 +$501 +2238%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $68 +$24 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $55 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $113 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 2¢ $16 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $16 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $51 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $45 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $29 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $60 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $86 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $87 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 81¢ $138 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 93¢ $155 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $13 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $90 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $31 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $46 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $93 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $100 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $137 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $37 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $19 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $21 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,661.80 · official $3,647.65 (match) · 745 history records