Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d7c…3e7a sports 689 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,319 (-10%) realized −$4,311 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%359W / 294L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$15
14 days+$79
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$1,812
world 22% −$1,568
other 14% −$925
politics 13% −$30
culture 13% −$314
tech 3% +$103
crypto 1% +$79
finance 0% +$139
weather 0% −$31
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 53% -6.4%
≤30d 194 +4.7% -5.3% 57% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 491 -3.1% -12.4% 56% 39% -17.8%
all 653 -1.8% -11.1% 55% 41% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% -18.7%
10% -19.6% 34% -26.5%
15% -27.4% 28% -33.6%
20% -34.5% 22% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized−$4,311
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses359 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions35
Markets (closed)653 / 689
History coverage125d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 653 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $99 $136 +$37 (+38%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $106 +$70 (+195%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $41 +$8 (+24%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $40 $37 −$4 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $31 −$5 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $25 −$35 (-58%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $36 $22 −$14 (-38%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 62¢ 90¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 78¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 31¢ 37¢ $15 $19 +$3 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 59¢ 98¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+65%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 77¢ 46¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-40%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 60¢ 54¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+15%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 56¢ 88¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 24¢ 73¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+204%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 67¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 35¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-55%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 62¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 22 $41 +$13 +32%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 22 $9 −$8 -92%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $13 +$7 +60%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $42 +$7 +17%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 202 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +91%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +19%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $8 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $12 +$8 +70%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $6 +$4 +57%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -56%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5 +$5 +83%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $22 +$8 +38%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 18 $9 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $6 +$4 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $112 +$9 +8%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $7 +$3 +44%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $6 +$4 +55%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $11 −$1 -12%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $52 +$17 +33%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 +$3 +50%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +143%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +138%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $6 +$4 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +257%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $19 +$5 +24%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$20 +104%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $72 +$5 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 60¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 67¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 57¢ $6 2h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 100¢ $51 2h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes $1 5h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 62¢ $6 8h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $4 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY MOUZ 64¢ $6 18h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes $0 19h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $50 19h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 62¢ $13 27h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 54¢ $5 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $42 31h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 32h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $1 33h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $27 34h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $5 34h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 37h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 74¢ $5 37h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes $0 38h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu BUY OG 58¢ $12 2d
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 66¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 63¢ $6 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $7 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 202 BUY 52¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.76 · official $713.06 (match) · 2566 history records