Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4D 0x4d7d…3401 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$178 (-12%) realized −$145 · open −$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$86

7 days−$86

14 days−$202

30 days−$190

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-20.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	14	-12.5%	-20.8%	29%	29%	-32.6%
≤90d	14	-12.5%	-20.8%	29%	29%	-32.6%
all	14	-12.5%	-20.8%	29%	29%	-32.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.8%	29%	-32.6%
10%	-28.4%	29%	-39.0%
15%	-35.3%	29%	-44.9%
20%	-41.7%	29%	-50.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +36% → late -61% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$47 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$637

Realized−$145

Unrealized−$33

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions8

Markets (closed)14 / 22

History coverage16d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance	England	88¢	88¢	$84	$84	+$0 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	Mexico	63¢	62¢	$84	$83	−$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	60¢	60¢	$84	$83	−$1 (-1%)
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 0.5	Over	90¢	88¢	$84	$82	−$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Germany	87¢	86¢	$84	$82	−$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Belgium O/U 0.5	Over	78¢	76¢	$84	$82	−$2 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Norway	65¢	64¢	$84	$82	−$2 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Brazil	73¢	50¢	$84	$58	−$26 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$86	−$86	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	+$88	+171%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$26	+$113	+440%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$27	+54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$151	−$48	-32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance	BUY Norway	65¢	$85	1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	BUY Mexico	63¢	$85	1h
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: United States O/U 0.5	BUY Over	90¢	$84	1h
Belgium vs. Senegal: Belgium O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$85	1h
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance	BUY England	88¢	$85	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	60¢	$85	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Brazil	73¢	$85	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	87¢	$85	23h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	BUY South Africa	26¢	$86	25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	36¢	$51	14d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	14d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	14d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$51	14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	15d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	97¢	$101	15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	15d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$26	15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$25	15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	83¢	$51	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.05 · official $637.05 (match) · 38 history records