Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d86…1cb2 other 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,375 (-14%) realized −$4,345 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%89W / 120L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day78.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% −$778
finance 23% −$118
crypto 22% −$110
politics 17% −$395
world 10% +$166
economics 1% +$43
tech 1% −$42
sports 1% +$618
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +11.4% +0.8% 42% 35% -18.5%
≤30d 170 +14.8% +3.9% 45% 32% -8.5%
≤90d 209 +10.2% -0.3% 43% 28% -11.3%
all 209 +10.2% -0.3% 43% 28% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 28% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 20% -19.8%
15% -18.5% 11% -27.5%
20% -26.5% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$4,345
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses89 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions29
Markets (closed)209 / 238
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$133
Trades / day78.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+53%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $56 $47 −$8 (-15%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $28 +$9 (+50%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+19%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+42%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-44%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-54%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? No 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 24 $4 +$2 +56%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $170 −$58 -34%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $20 +$30 +150%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 23 $6 +$26 +433%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 23 $27 −$6 -22%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 23 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $290 −$30 -10%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 23 $30 +$41 +135%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -33%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $12 +$1 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 22 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $419 −$50 -12%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $75 −$13 -18%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $8 +$13 +170%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 22 $62 −$27 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 22 $410 −$73 -18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $16 +$5 +29%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $33 −$7 -20%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 22 $70 −$10 -14%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 22 $4 $0 +10%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $13 +$8 +62%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 −$8 -15%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $80 +$10 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +81%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $60 −$2 -3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $250 −$50 -20%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 18 $54 +$26 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 1¢ $4 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $112 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $30 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 1¢ $2 9h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 2¢ $50 12h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 1¢ $20 12h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 13h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $31 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 1¢ $15 14h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 15h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 16h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 1¢ $23 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.66 · official $396.66 (match) · 3500 history records