Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d8a…2953 crypto 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,988 (+0%) realized +$2,694 · open +$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate65%176W / 93L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$3,185per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$482
14 days+$720
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$4,192
world 9% −$365
politics 5% +$8
sports 3% −$1,403
tech 2% +$132
other 2% +$198
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +10.3% -0.2% 66% 10% -8.9%
≤30d 92 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 15% -9.5%
≤90d 212 -6.4% -15.3% 64% 11% -9.3%
all 269 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 10% -9.3%
10% -23.9% 7% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 6% -25.9%
20% -38.0% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$5,220) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$92 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,538
Realized+$2,694
Unrealized+$294
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses176 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions12
Markets (closed)269 / 281
History coverage116d
Avg bet$3,185
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 65¢ 84¢ $1,005 $1,296 +$291 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $31 $35 +$4 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $26 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $7,437 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $500 +$4 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,590 −$1,572 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $452 +$2,545 +563%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $710 −$702 -99%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $89 −$74 -83%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2,123 +$21 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,163 +$3 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $9,970 +$19 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,248 +$4 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5,077 +$99 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2,476 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $40 −$11 -28%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $55 +$43 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $174 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $26 −$10 -38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$16 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,985 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $216 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8,089 +$25 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $82 −$10 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,656 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,196 −$26 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $17 −$4 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $4,946 +$39 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $7,765 +$31 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $23 +$9 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,719 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,937 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4,915 +$80 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $58 +$23 +39%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $14 −$12 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$3 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $7,540 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $246 +$54 +22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $104 −$86 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $10,205 +$53 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $21 −$15 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4,374 +$24 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $33 +$16 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $80 +$19 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 29m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,448 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $265 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,476 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,979 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,792 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $57 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $261 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 30h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 30h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 30h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,618 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,537.65 · official $1,537.68 (match) · 2788 history records