Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d8a…1f78 other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$271 (-2%) realized −$269 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%37W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$84
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$9
other 11% −$190
crypto 8% −$36
world 6% −$6
politics 4% −$38
tech 3% −$25
finance 2% $0
culture 1% −$15
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -9.1% -17.7% 13% 4% -13.9%
≤30d 58 -9.3% -17.9% 16% 3% -13.7%
≤90d 107 -10.1% -18.6% 17% 5% -13.3%
all 154 -9.1% -17.8% 24% 6% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 6% -11.2%
10% -25.7% 1% -19.7%
15% -32.8% 1% -27.5%
20% -39.4% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses37 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage538d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $46 +$2 +4%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $186 $0 +0%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -91%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 19 $26 −$4 -16%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 18 $91 −$11 -12%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 18 $44 −$3 -8%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 18 $64 −$13 -20%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $58 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$4 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 18 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $24 −$3 -14%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$5 -26%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 18 $14 −$3 -20%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 17 $12 −$6 -48%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$5 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -55%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $70 −$3 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 14 $44 −$5 -11%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$3 -6%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $26 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $24 −$4 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -21%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $22 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $5 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $27 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $16 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $15 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 9h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $6 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $27 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $0 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $33 9h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $36 10h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 17¢ $8 12h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 67¢ $33 14h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL No 81¢ $40 14h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $37 14h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 14h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 87¢ $44 15h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL Yes 21¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.25 · official $20.25 (match) · 483 history records