Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:38:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d8c…f777 crypto 1615 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$316 (-5%) realized −$211 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%785W / 809L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$26
14 days−$723
30 days−$721
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$256
other 43% −$157
weather 2% −$24
tech 1% −$14
world 0% +$6
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 36% +12.0%
≤30d 370 -85.0% -86.5% 7% 6% -79.3%
≤90d 1594 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 48% -14.3%
all 1594 -5.2% -14.3% 49% 48% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 48% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 47% -22.5%
15% -30.0% 45% -30.0%
20% -36.8% 42% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses785 / 809
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1594 / 1615
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on June 29? Yes 83¢ 64¢ $59 $45 −$14 (-23%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on June 29? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? Yes 23¢ 42¢ $13 $24 +$11 (+86%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 28? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 28? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $8 +$26 +327%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 +$42 +298%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 25? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 25? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$10 +400%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $1 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +18%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 $0 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +17%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1 $0 +18%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1 +$2 +172%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 2h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 9h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on June 29? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 10h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 26h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 26h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.77 · official $129.78 (match) · 3500 history records