Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

4D 0x4d8d…3e65 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$70 (+22%) realized +$71 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown42%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days+$44

14 days+$59

30 days+$59

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+0.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+4.5%	-5.5%	54%	54%	+5.9%
≤30d	14	+11.0%	+0.4%	57%	57%	+9.9%
≤90d	14	+11.0%	+0.4%	57%	57%	+9.9%
all	14	+11.0%	+0.4%	57%	57%	+9.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.4%	57%	+9.9%
10%	-9.2%	57%	-0.6%
15%	-18.0%	57%	-10.2%
20%	-26.0%	50%	-19.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +49% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized+$71

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage10d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown42%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	40¢	38¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-4%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 24	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 24	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$26	+$13	+50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$26	+$12	+48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$26	+$29	+112%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$26	+$13	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$26	+$17	+65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$11	+$29	+280%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$31	+$16	+52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$16	+$15	+95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$11	1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$11	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$26	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$26	37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$26	37h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	45h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	16¢	$11	45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	45¢	$26	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$26	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$26	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$26	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$26	4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$11	5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$11	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$3	6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$31	9d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	49¢	$16	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.65 · official $43.65 (match) · 32 history records