Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d8e…735b other 323 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,156 (+1%) realized +$1,134 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate75%196W / 66L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$978est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$10,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days−$934
14 days−$804
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$392
weather 32% +$158
other 18% +$422
politics 1% +$42
crypto 0% +$76
world 0% −$12
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.9% -13.1% 63% 28% -21.8%
≤30d 168 +0.6% -9.0% 67% 14% -10.5%
≤90d 262 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 10% -8.5%
all 262 +1.1% -8.6% 75% 10% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 10% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 5% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$39 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$10,170
Realized+$1,134
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses196 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$978
Open positions61
Markets (closed)262 / 323
History coverage51d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1,288 $1,548 +$260 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $688 $1,204 +$516 (+75%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,149 $1,149 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,288 $1,108 −$180 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $848 $868 +$20 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $816 $628 −$188 (-23%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $467 $466 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $424 $428 +$4 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $320 $396 +$76 (+24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $680 $388 −$292 (-43%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $392 $386 −$6 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $196 $198 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $144 $164 +$20 (+14%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 50¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 87¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 43¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will Enzo Fernández score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 46¢ $77 $52 −$26 (-33%)
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 10–15%? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Leandro Trossard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 41¢ $58 $48 −$10 (-17%)
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $57 $44 −$13 (-23%)
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 68¢ $46 $40 −$6 (-14%)
Will Ryan Gravenberch score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $71 $39 −$32 (-45%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 74¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+31%)
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 88¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+16%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 68¢ $42 $36 −$6 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $64 +$25 +39%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 24 $951 +$42 +4%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $53 −$26 -50%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $842 +$58 +7%
Will Carney Chukwuemeka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $790 +$9 +1%
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $915 +$19 +2%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $899 +$85 +10%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Noah Okafor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $22 +$6 +26%
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Pedro Neto score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $48 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Elanga score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 +$30 +103%
Will Martin Zubimendi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$13 -41%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $96 +$5 +5%
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Pervis Estupiñán score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $41 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro Jun 18 $1,096 −$980 -89%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Jun 18 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Keito Nakamura score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Marcus Rashford score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $63 +$32 +50%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ibrahim Sangaré score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 +$16 +96%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $905 +$84 +9%
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Mateo Kovačić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $52 55m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $37 55m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $400 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $476 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 4h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $81 4h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 100¢ $719 24h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 100¢ $77 25h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 100¢ $104 26h
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 96¢ $807 33h
Will Carney Chukwuemeka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $5 37h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $799 2d
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $2 2d
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $1 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 95¢ $65 2d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $790 2d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 95¢ $79 2d
Will James Rodríguez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 93¢ $842 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $719 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $915 3d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 77¢ $9 3d
Will Wilson Isidor score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $4 3d
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $3 3d
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,169.54 · official $10,168.75 (match) · 1914 history records