Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

4D 0x4d91…00f7 other 18 markets active 20h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$81 (+8%) realized +$11 · open +$70

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%4W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$63

7 days−$49

14 days+$141

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-1.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-36.9%	-42.9%	20%	20%	-27.4%
≤30d	15	+9.3%	-1.1%	27%	27%	-8.7%
≤90d	15	+9.3%	-1.1%	27%	27%	-8.7%
all	15	+9.3%	-1.1%	27%	27%	-8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.1%	27%	-8.7%
10%	-10.6%	27%	-17.4%
15%	-19.2%	27%	-25.4%
20%	-27.1%	27%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +57% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$138 vs −$49 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$190

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$70

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses4 / 11

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage18d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	19¢	64¢	$38	$129	+$91 (+239%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	5¢	28¢	$11	$55	+$44 (+406%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	36¢	3¢	$71	$6	−$65 (-92%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Jun 28	$65	−$63	-97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 26	$63	+$137	+216%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$70	−$68	-97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$34	−$33	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	Jun 24	$23	−$22	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 19	$88	+$112	+126%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 17	$65	−$42	-64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 17	$56	−$54	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$25	+$175	+698%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 15	$45	−$42	-94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 14	$74	−$41	-55%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 14	$66	−$65	-98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$72	+$128	+178%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$109	−$107	-98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 11	$7	−$7	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$40	26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	36¢	$37	26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$14	26h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	35¢	$36	31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	25¢	$26	31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	23¢	$25	31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$32	5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$35	5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$18	5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	34¢	$35	5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$31	5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	SELL Yes	21¢	$20	12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	21¢	$22	12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	21¢	$22	12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$28	12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$44	12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	21¢	$22	12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$28	12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$44	12d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	14d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	31¢	$26	15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	31¢	$0	15d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	SELL Yes	31¢	$1	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.78 · official $189.78 (match) · 58 history records