Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4D 0x4d93…4a14 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$168 (-3%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.7% +1.1% 100% 50% +1.7%
≤30d 4 +11.7% +1.1% 100% 50% +1.7%
≤90d 4 +11.7% +1.1% 100% 50% +1.7%
all 43 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 16% -11.8%
10% -17.5% 5% -20.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -27.9%
20% -32.8% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$89 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage128d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $131 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $116 +$14 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 06 $61 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 06 $415 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 06 $406 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 06 $376 −$376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 05 $372 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 04 $353 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 04 $349 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 04 $346 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 04 $342 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 04 $335 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 03 $121 +$74 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 03 $198 +$63 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 03 $192 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 28 $193 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 28 $187 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 28 $184 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 19 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3AM ET Feb 19 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 18 $73 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 18 $73 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3PM ET Feb 18 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 19? Feb 18 $71 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 18 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 18 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5AM ET Feb 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 17 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3AM ET Feb 17 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 17 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 16 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 16 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 16 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 16 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 16 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $116 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $61 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $415 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $415 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $415 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $406 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $376 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $376 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $372 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $365 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $353 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $353 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $349 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $349 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $346 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $346 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $342 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $343 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $335 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $195 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $121 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $261 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $198 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $198 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $192 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records