Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d96…2c6e crypto 1124 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$207 (+1%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%466W / 658L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$526
14 days−$1,249
30 days−$1,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,083
sports 8% +$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -34.3% -40.6% 26% 26% -35.6%
≤30d 401 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 36% -27.1%
≤90d 842 -9.1% -17.8% 38% 38% -12.0%
all 1124 -9.1% -17.8% 41% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 41% -12.0%
10% -25.6% 40% -20.4%
15% -32.8% 40% -28.1%
20% -39.4% 37% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$17 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses466 / 658
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1124 / 1124
History coverage160d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1124 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$33 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$64 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$47 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $57 −$20 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$23 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$12 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$12 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$25 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3166 history records