Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d98…1e48 crypto 783 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,821 (-3%) realized −$1,821 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%451W / 332L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$443
14 days+$332
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,745
sports 10% −$182
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 57% +1.8%
≤30d 175 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 56% -5.1%
≤90d 346 -3.3% -12.5% 57% 55% -10.3%
all 783 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 54% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 54% -12.5%
10% -19.0% 48% -20.9%
15% -26.8% 44% -28.5%
20% -34.0% 41% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$55 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,821
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses451 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)783 / 783
History coverage142d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 783 Trades
no open positions (314 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $341 +$325 +95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $196 −$192 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $142 −$47 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $145 +$130 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$94 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$65 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 +$42 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$33 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$13 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $11 +$18 +163%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $24 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $341 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $196 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $95 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $142 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $34 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $145 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $128 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $62 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $62 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $20 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1624 history records