Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d9c…8824
weather · 1424 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,173 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,051 · open −$121
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,726
Realized−$1,051
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1314 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1385 / 1424
History coverage25d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day73.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 32 History 1385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$344
7 days−$388
14 days−$593
30 days−$1,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $206 $206 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 63¢ 80¢ $47 $59 +$13 (+27%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 102°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 99¢ 10¢ $140 $15 −$125 (-89%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $78 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $150 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $370 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
HYPE Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 45% +$34
other 20% −$614
sports 17% −$509
crypto 17% −$92
finance 1% +$13
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 104°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $47 7m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $6 58m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $28 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $20 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $30 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $40 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 -5.4% -14.4% 94% 1% -11.0%
≤30d 1385 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
≤90d 1385 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
all 1385 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 2% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 2% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 1% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,726.06 · official $1,725.99 (match) · 3500 history records