Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d9f…fc6e crypto 1306 markets active 2d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%571W / 735L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day131.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$146
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 44% -13.3%
≤30d 1306 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -13.6%
≤90d 1306 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -13.6%
all 1306 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 39% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.4% 35% -21.9%
15% -37.1% 29% -29.4%
20% -43.3% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses571 / 735
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1306 / 1306
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day131.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1306 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records