Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4D 0x4d9f…69d2 other 6 markets active 194d ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1572% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1187% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1187%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 64% +$1,206
crypto 25% −$14
other 6% +$1,210
economics 3% +$59
sports 2% +$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+1412.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 +1571.7% +1412.5% 83% 83% +1279.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1412.5% 83% +1279.5%
10% ← realistic here +1267.8% 83% +1147.5%
15% +1135.6% 83% +1026.9%
20% +1014.5% 83% +916.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1572% · $-wt +4866% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$559 vs −$14 · ×38.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×192.9 per $1 lost it wins $192.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage16d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 30 $31 +$1,126 +3619%
Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Nov 29 $1 +$323 +29331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 22 $3 +$1,210 +35522%
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 22 $5 +$80 +1530%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Nov 20 $2 +$59 +3171%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 194d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 196d
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 196d
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $9 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Zendaya be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Act SELL Yes 1¢ $10 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 616 history records