Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d9f…fadf weather 94 markets active 18h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 87L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$1
other 4% +$2
world 1% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 29% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 33 +0.7% -8.9% 15% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 94 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.3%
all 94 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×48.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage48d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 31 $17 +$1 +4%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 31 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 29? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 120k an May 22 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 17? May 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 17? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 14? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 13? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on May 13? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 13? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12? May 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 12? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 12? May 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 SELL No 99¢ $10 17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 93¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY Yes $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? BUY No $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 98¢ $14 10d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 327 history records