Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4da1…6045 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%39W / 104L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$25
other 37% −$9
crypto 3% −$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +23.7% +11.9% 29% 29% +2.8%
≤30d 26 +14.2% +3.3% 27% 27% -4.9%
≤90d 122 -5.3% -14.3% 26% 25% -8.7%
all 143 -6.1% -15.1% 27% 27% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 27% -7.3%
10% -23.2% 27% -16.2%
15% -30.6% 27% -24.3%
20% -37.4% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses39 / 104
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage183d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +331%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$7 +360%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$11 +308%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$13 +290%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$26 +771%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to Score May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: Both Teams to Score May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $2 +$6 +283%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2 +$3 +208%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 25h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $9 37h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $2 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $14 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 45h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 92¢ $18 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $30 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $3 4d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 16¢ $5 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 17d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 21¢ $3 28d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.18 · official $3.18 (match) · 217 history records