Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4da1…f708 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-11%) realized +$16 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 125d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$27
crypto 17% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 10 -34.9% -41.1% 30% 20% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 20% -39.9%
10% -46.7% 10% -45.7%
15% -51.9% 10% -50.9%
20% -56.6% 10% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage125d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 9¢ 6¢ $30 $19 −$12 (-38%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 12¢ 4¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 12 $3 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 12 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 12 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 9¢ $31 46m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 15¢ $31 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.03 · official $27.82 (match) · 26 history records