Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4D 0x4da6…e999 world 17 markets active 3d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,689 (-38%) realized −$1,689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,173
14 days−$1,420
30 days−$1,695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$1,666
other 3% +$17
sports 1% −$50
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.9% -40.2% 50% 25% -88.1%
≤30d 17 -24.6% -31.8% 59% 35% -44.2%
≤90d 17 -24.6% -31.8% 59% 35% -44.2%
all 17 -24.6% -31.8% 59% 35% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 35% -44.2%
10% -38.3% 24% -49.5%
15% -44.3% 12% -54.4%
20% -49.7% 0% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$298 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage19d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $65 −$44 -68%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$17 +32%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 12 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 07 $310 −$121 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 03 $150 −$150 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $250 +$15 +6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 03 $30 +$5 +16%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 02 $525 −$525 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 01 $290 +$14 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $100 +$40 +40%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 01 $100 +$36 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $620 +$164 +26%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $500 +$91 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 8¢ $68 2d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $5 9d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $65 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $600 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $109 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $109 9d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $114 10d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $150 12d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $100 13d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J BUY Yes 13¢ $25 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? SELL Yes 13¢ $184 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $265 13d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 85¢ $157 13d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 68¢ $35 14d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J BUY Yes 15¢ $25 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 15d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $51 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $250 15d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY Yes 25¢ $400 15d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? BUY Yes 20¢ $250 15d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J BUY Yes 86¢ $100 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $304 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 73¢ $140 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records