Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4da6…3ec9 crypto 273 markets active 6d ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate77%203W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$12
other 15% −$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 107 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 23% -11.8%
all 262 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 25% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 25% -12.6%
10% -18.7% 13% -21.0%
15% -26.5% 9% -28.6%
20% -33.7% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses203 / 59
Open positions11
Markets (closed)262 / 273
History coverage200d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicole Mann be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Jessica Meir be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 24 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 23 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will Nicole Mann be chosen for the Artemis III mission? BUY No 97¢ $30 8d
Will Jessica Meir be chosen for the Artemis III mission? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 12d
Will Jessica Meir be chosen for the Artemis III mission? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.64 · official $21.65 (match) · 715 history records