Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4da7…9d07
crypto · 154 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$97 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses78 / 74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 152 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$91
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 31¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 64¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$83
finance 1% −$10
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -14.6% -22.7% 58% 49% -19.9%
≤30d 152 -19.5% -27.2% 51% 43% -18.8%
≤90d 152 -19.5% -27.2% 51% 43% -18.8%
all 152 -19.5% -27.2% 51% 43% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 43% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 32% -26.6%
15% -40.5% 23% -33.7%
20% -46.3% 13% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.16 · official $3.85 (match) · 616 history records