Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4da7…355e world 129 markets active 6h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$163,558 (+12%) realized +$164,986 · open −$1,428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%72W / 46L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$10,398per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$45,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8,488
14 days+$86,226
30 days+$76,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$77,467
politics 14% +$14,127
crypto 14% +$3,102
culture 13% +$13,951
tech 2% +$1,993
finance 1% +$890
sports 0% +$379
other 0% +$456
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.0% 80% 60% +3.1%
≤30d 60 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 45% +1.6%
≤90d 118 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 36% -1.3%
all 118 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 36% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 36% -1.3%
10% -21.0% 26% -10.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.6% 22% -19.4%
20% -35.6% 14% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$7,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,224 vs −$1,029 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$45,797
Realized+$164,986
Unrealized−$1,428
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses72 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions11
Markets (closed)118 / 129
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$10,398
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $13,201 $13,916 +$715 (+5%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 30¢ $13,087 $8,773 −$4,314 (-33%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 86¢ $7,161 $8,367 +$1,206 (+17%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $5,303 $5,724 +$420 (+8%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 77¢ 99¢ $3,829 $4,968 +$1,138 (+30%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 99¢ $1,575 $1,880 +$305 (+19%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $909 $1,084 +$175 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $733 $587 −$146 (-20%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $1,043 $264 −$779 (-75%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $320 $170 −$150 (-47%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $8,720 +$1,076 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 25 $2,780 −$2,780 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $45,890 +$8,722 +19%
Will "The Death of Robin Hood" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 22 $411 +$16 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2,860 +$1,454 +51%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 20 $5,140 −$4,444 -86%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 20 $312 +$257 +82%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 20 $29 +$29 +102%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 20 $622 −$447 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $6,331 +$3,742 +59%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $17,503 +$3,276 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $3,337 +$690 +21%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $38,584 +$729 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,356 +$566 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4,650 +$10,350 +223%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $112,674 +$24,772 +22%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $785 +$730 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$129 +212%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $5,411 +$1,354 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$58 -93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $55 +$16 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38,447 +$23,306 +61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10,760 +$13,613 +126%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $24 +$12 +49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $716 −$408 -57%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 14 $347 −$115 -33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3,940 +$60 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,996 +$15 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $4,890 +$110 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $12,532 +$1,717 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $430 +$90 +21%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 09 $328 −$328 -100%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 09 $330 −$330 -100%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 08 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $618 +$445 +72%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1,544 +$107 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7,500 −$4,570 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $2,417 +$433 +18%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 06 $1,938 +$296 +15%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 05 $110 −$30 -27%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $340 −$160 -47%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $260 −$260 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $104 −$104 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $187,866 +$3,102 +2%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $11,635 +$1,003 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $917 5h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 16¢ $219 7h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 16¢ $66 7h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 16¢ $35 7h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $3 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $117 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $0 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $370 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $6 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $0 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $1 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $103 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $133 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $201 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $12 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $152 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $410 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $420 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $154 13h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $113 14h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $33 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $19 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $96 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 43¢ $16 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $18 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $45 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,797.11 · official $45,797.86 (match) · 3500 history records