Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4da9…3f5d
world · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$29 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage37d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 50¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 95¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 62¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$2 +15%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $260 +$9 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $25 −$3 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 $0 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 -2%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $90 −$3 -3%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $20 +$1 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 15 $15 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 14 $15 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $5 +$8 +150%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $25 +$2 +7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $10 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $50 −$6 -12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $10 −$5 -55%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May? May 07 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% $0
crypto 25% +$9
politics 6% +$5
other 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.1% -22.3% 67% 17% -11.5%
≤30d 24 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 36 +2.4% -7.3% 67% 17% -8.7%
all 36 +2.4% -7.3% 67% 17% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 17% -8.7%
10% -16.2% 6% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 6% -25.4%
20% -31.7% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.23 · official $80.23 (match) · 575 history records