Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4daa…ca71 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1
other 26% +$1
politics 10% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 35 +57.9% +42.9% 49% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.9% 6% -9.4%
10% +29.2% 3% -18.1%
15% +16.7% 3% -26.0%
20% +5.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +112% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $63 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 29 $30 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $0 $0 +3050%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 14 $16 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $16 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $30 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $33 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $33 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $16 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $5 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $30 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 17d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 76¢ $29 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $30 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records