Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dae…c024 crypto 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-13%) realized −$113 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day79.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$122
other 3% −$9
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 31% -25.4%
≤30d 134 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 31% -25.4%
≤90d 134 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 31% -25.4%
all 134 -31.2% -37.7% 32% 31% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 31% -25.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 31% -32.6%
15% -49.1% 30% -39.1%
20% -54.1% 28% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day79.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 44¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +135%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$10 +151%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$12 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +128%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +161%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$9 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +261%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.74 · official $5.74 (match) · 259 history records