Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4db0…7ff6 crypto 664 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-5%) realized −$289 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%317W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$44
14 days−$90
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$110
sports 31% −$178
other 9% −$106
economics 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -60.6% -64.4% 25% 25% -51.3%
≤30d 52 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 52% -19.1%
≤90d 663 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 44% -16.6%
all 663 -1.1% -10.5% 48% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 44% -16.6%
10% -19.1% 41% -24.5%
15% -26.9% 39% -31.8%
20% -34.0% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$289
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses317 / 346
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)663 / 664
History coverage65d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$16 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $16 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $16 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 06 $16 +$11 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$17 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $17 +$16 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 04 $16 +$21 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 04 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET Jun 02 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $6 +$9 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 29 $6 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $6 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $16 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $17 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.44 · official $59.44 (match) · 1682 history records