Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:21:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4db1…528c
sports · 106 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$9 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses47 / 48
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions11
Markets (closed)95 / 106
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 11 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs HyperSpirit 25¢ 26¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 48¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+109%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Clutchain 52¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+92%)
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs Bushido Wildcats 80¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 28¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 27¢ 54¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+100%)
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner UCAM Esports Club 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs fnatic 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner fnatic 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Leo Team 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs UNiTY esports 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner KOLESIE 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Top Esports 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Gatorian 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Overtake 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner HEROIC Academy 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Mimi Xu 45¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Cloud9 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner struggletony 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner illwill 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Club 333 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$7 -58%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$11 +228%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +143%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 +$4 +250%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$9 -64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$2 -23%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $4 +$6 +172%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$2 -28%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $0 $0 +58%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $22 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 +$2 +119%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$21 +67%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $14 +$8 +58%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $24 +$32 +130%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $3 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 29¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner BUY fnatic 26¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 27¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 60¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 25¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE BUY Bushido Wildcats 80¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 56¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 59¢ $3 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 40¢ $2 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 45¢ $2 2h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 59¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 36¢ $3 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $3 4h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $1 4h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $2 4h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 29¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 35¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 23¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY Clutchain 52¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +5.4% -4.6% 50% 48% -9.6%
≤30d 95 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 45% -10.3%
≤90d 95 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 45% -10.3%
all 95 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 45% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 39% -18.9%
15% -23.0% 34% -26.7%
20% -30.5% 27% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.39 · official $51.39 (match) · 432 history records