Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4db2…1d0f crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-20%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day85.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$98
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 44% -27.3%
≤30d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 44% -27.3%
≤90d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 44% -27.3%
all 9 -10.1% -18.7% 56% 44% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 44% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 33% -34.2%
15% -33.6% 22% -40.6%
20% -40.1% 11% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$39 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day85.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt to score first vs. IR Iran? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $69 −$33 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $85 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $98 +$26 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.84 · official $2.84 (match) · 92 history records