Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4db5…4d00 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,652 (-33%) realized −$6,643 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 38L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days−$171
14 days−$572
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$6,419
other 23% −$104
crypto 1% −$150
politics 0% −$50
finance 0% +$15
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 52% -13.2%
≤30d 35 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 54% -6.1%
≤90d 37 +7.3% -2.9% 57% 54% -6.0%
all 80 -6.1% -15.1% 52% 49% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 49% -40.6%
10% -23.2% 42% -46.3%
15% -30.6% 34% -51.5%
20% -37.4% 29% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$289 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$6,643
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage240d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $239 $229 −$10 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $141 +$80 +57%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$58 -57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 −$46 -44%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $860 −$854 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $807 +$340 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$98 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $541 +$144 +27%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $247 +$146 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$44 +48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$30 +98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$40 +99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$260 +128%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$40 -40%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $253 +$201 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $755 −$743 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $465 +$34 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $306 +$602 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $307 −$300 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $257 +$424 +165%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $129 +$70 +54%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 12 $25 +$15 +59%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $350 +$68 +20%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 20 $922 +$22 +2%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $216 +$64 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 15 $506 +$351 +69%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 14 $43 +$37 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $84 +$181 +215%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Mar 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $50 +$30 +61%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $243 +$57 +23%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 09 $236 +$256 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $242 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 15h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $141 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $59 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $104 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $45 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $155 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.77 · official $370.77 (match) · 177 history records