Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4db6…0dca other 21 markets active 3d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-23%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$10
crypto 21% $0
sports 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 38% -48.5%
≤30d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 38% -48.5%
≤90d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 38% -48.5%
all 15 -14.5% -22.7% 60% 47% -40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 47% -40.1%
10% -30.1% 27% -45.8%
15% -36.8% 20% -51.0%
20% -43.0% 20% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage117d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.99 · official $14.99 (match) · 41 history records