Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4db7…c2dd crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$38 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%22W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day143.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -24.1% -31.3% 47% 43% -10.0%
≤30d 47 -24.1% -31.3% 47% 43% -10.0%
≤90d 47 -24.1% -31.3% 47% 43% -10.0%
all 47 -24.1% -31.3% 47% 43% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 43% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.9% 32% -18.6%
15% -43.9% 15% -26.4%
20% -49.4% 13% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses22 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 0¢ 32¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $119 −$68 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $88 −$58 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$40 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$43 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $178 +$56 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $134 +$37 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $67 +$37 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$26 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$55 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $56 −$27 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$23 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.27 · official $1.98 (match) · 193 history records