Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4db7…1cab sports 367 markets active 2h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$546 (+4%) realized +$572 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%126W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$611
14 days+$615
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$166
other 30% +$699
world 1% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +69.7% +53.6% 44% 44% +88.4%
≤30d 110 +28.1% +15.9% 34% 34% -5.4%
≤90d 258 +8.0% -2.3% 37% 37% -2.8%
all 329 +16.0% +5.0% 38% 38% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 38% -3.4%
10% -5.1% 37% -12.7%
15% -14.3% 36% -21.1%
20% -22.7% 33% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$31 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses126 / 203
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions6
Markets (closed)329 / 367
History coverage253d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 38¢ 12¢ $45 $15 −$30 (-67%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 17¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$63 +206%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$79 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$53 +343%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 +$23 +50%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both T Jun 20 $8 +$46 +562%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 Jun 20 $10 +$40 +392%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 20 $10 +$41 +398%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$40 +388%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $44 +$46 +105%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$23 +221%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Colombia (-1. Jun 18 $10 +$34 +332%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$64 +300%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 +$105 +65%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$46 +227%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 −$3 -16%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 +$104 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $20 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 17¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 20¢ $5 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 34¢ $5 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 38¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 41¢ $20 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) BUY 24¢ $15 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 40¢ $20 22h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 22h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $20 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY 10¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $31 36h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY $10 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 22¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 46¢ $15 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win BUY 11¢ $31 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $4 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win BUY 11¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY $10 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.49 · official $274.49 · 802 history records