Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dbc…9fea other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$661 (-6%) realized −$661 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$1
other 27% −$138
crypto 9% +$15
sports 5% −$572
tech 2% +$30
world 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 2 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 50% -3.3%
≤90d 4 +4.3% -5.6% 100% 25% -5.2%
all 27 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 4% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -14.5%
10% -23.6% 0% -22.7%
15% -31.0% 0% -30.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$546) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$55 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$661
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage680d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 18 $250 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 06 $216 +$30 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? May 08 $398 +$10 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 28 $207 +$1 +1%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17? Feb 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Jan 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Nov 06 $135 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Oct 02 $135 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Jul 01 $135 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Apr 29 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 14 $133 +$1 +0%
Blues vs. Blue Jackets Jan 05 $572 −$572 -100%
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? Dec 24 $133 $0 +0%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Dec 02 $132 $0 +0%
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? Oct 06 $1,610 $0 -0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024? Oct 06 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 07 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 07 $254 −$1 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Aug 06 $1,007 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House Aug 06 $1,762 $0 -0%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Aug 06 $1,982 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Aug 06 $487 $0 -0%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Aug 06 $546 −$1 -0%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 06 $412 $0 -0%
France wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Aug 06 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $250 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 88¢ $246 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 76¢ $216 40d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 94¢ $188 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL No 94¢ $185 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 94¢ $185 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes $11 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes $12 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? SELL Yes $13 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes $14 109d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $207 124d
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-17? BUY No 67¢ $137 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $136 223d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $135 258d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions BUY No 100¢ $67 316d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions BUY No 100¢ $68 351d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $135 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $134 460d
Blues vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blues 45¢ $572 529d
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $133 540d
Will another team win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship? BUY No 100¢ $133 562d
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec BUY No 100¢ $132 618d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $151 619d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $9 619d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $24 619d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $11 619d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $6 619d
Will José Luiz Datena win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $25 619d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records