Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dbd…4476 sports 893 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$649 (+1%) realized +$672 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%493W / 397L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$533
7 days−$8,814
14 days−$7,942
30 days−$5,905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$194
crypto 16% +$226
other 7% −$172
world 0% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -50.3% -55.1% 25% 23% -52.7%
≤30d 296 -26.2% -33.2% 39% 36% -28.2%
≤90d 727 -18.3% -26.1% 47% 40% -11.4%
all 890 -3.7% -12.8% 55% 48% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -9.3%
10% -21.2% 45% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 39% -25.9%
20% -35.8% 31% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$46 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$672
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses493 / 397
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions3
Markets (closed)890 / 893
History coverage141d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 890 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 46¢ 40¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 38¢ 24¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$76 -75%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals Jun 17 $22 +$45 +202%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$125 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$88 +87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$9 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$23 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$192 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $146 −$56 -38%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 +$26 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$49 -48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$66 -66%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$58 -57%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $202 +$75 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$76 -75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$62 -61%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$21 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$127 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$100 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,208 −$147 -12%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $243 −$240 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $447 −$356 -80%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $41 −$24 -59%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$4 -27%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 +$35 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $302 +$19 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $71 +$52 +73%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $91 +$78 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 38¢ $20 14m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 41m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $111 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $227 16h
Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $22 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 17h
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 18h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $15 18h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $10 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $156 19h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $190 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 19h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $101 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 35¢ $93 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $102 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.19 · official $49.16 · 2006 history records