Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4dc0…cb78 politics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 672d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 78L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 2% −$1
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 81 -4.2% -13.3% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

672d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage672d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Sociedad win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest be relegated? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Evan Engram be the top Fantasy Tight End? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Red Star Belgrade win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the AFC South? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2024 NBA Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jack Chambers be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $0 $0 -3%
Will Ben Carson be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate John Paulson for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend? Nov 17 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 25d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $59 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $32 35d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $27 35d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 39d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 39d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 46d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 47d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 75d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 75d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $0 75d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 85d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 86d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 97d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 98d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 99d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 99d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $60 103d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $60 104d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 113d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 115d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 117d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 172d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records