Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4dc3…9569
crypto · 621 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$179 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$293 · open −$98
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses279 / 340
Open positions1
Markets (closed)619 / 621
History coverage13d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day159.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 619 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$138
14 days−$293
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$45 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$334
other 4% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -18.0% -25.9% 46% 12% -15.5%
≤30d 619 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 14% -13.9%
≤90d 619 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 14% -13.9%
all 619 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 14% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover159.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 14% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 6% -22.1%
15% -32.5% 3% -29.7%
20% -39.1% 2% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 3282 history records