Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4dc4…306f
sports · 758 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$6,317 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,255 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$594
Realized−$6,255
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses284 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)754 / 758
History coverage400d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 4 History 754 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $416 $414 −$1 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $146 $124 −$22 (-15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
India T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) India 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 26¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) FURIA 46¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 2 Winner NRG 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Pacers Hornets 54¢ 0¢ $135 $0 −$135 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Team Liquid 26¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 45¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bengals vs. Bills Bengals 64¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28? No 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Lakers Lakers 44¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja (BO5) yache123 18¢ 0¢ $372 $0 −$372 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner GIANTX 73¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Spurs Hawks 50¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage FUT Esports 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Jazz Bulls 64¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-09? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Astralis 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Trail Blazers 28¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $26 −$26 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $13 +$13 +98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $45 −$39 -86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $46 −$40 -87%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $64 +$51 +81%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $24 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 19 $47 +$44 +94%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 19 $84 −$41 -49%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 19 $66 +$48 +72%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Apr 18 $47 +$52 +110%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $32 +$30 +93%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $37 −$32 -86%
Sidemen Charity Match 2026: Winner Apr 18 $25 +$25 +100%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 18 $73 −$72 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 18 $84 −$32 -38%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 18 $48 +$56 +117%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $72 −$62 -86%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $56 −$25 -45%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $39 +$59 +152%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Blues vs. Utah Apr 17 $47 +$53 +112%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 16 $84 −$60 -72%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 16 $53 +$50 +96%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $80 −$64 -80%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $66 −$40 -61%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Team Liquid (BO1) Apr 16 $78 −$157 -200%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 16 $14 −$2 -13%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $212 +$51 +24%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 16 $54 −$54 -100%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 16 $49 +$65 +132%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $9 +$2 +21%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Feb 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Andrey Rublev vs Tallon Griekspoor Feb 27 $32 +$1 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 27 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 27 $35 −$34 -96%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP P Feb 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$6,303
other 23% −$437
politics 2% +$484
world 1% +$37
tech 0% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $56 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $39 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $423 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 6d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 46¢ $26 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 13d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $36 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $0 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $0 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $10 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $0 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $1 28d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 45¢ $2 28d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 29¢ $29 48d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Baltimore Orioles 5¢ $5 54d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $1 54d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $44 54d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $1 54d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $18 54d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 54d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $2 54d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $28 54d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 17¢ $8 54d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 54d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 54d
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 54d
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 33% -73.5%
≤90d 42 +21.7% +10.1% 33% 31% -33.1%
all 754 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 35% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -16.9%
10% -19.6% 33% -24.9%
15% -27.3% 32% -32.1%
20% -34.5% 30% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.84 · official $593.84 (match) · 3305 history records